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Zimbabwe's election waiting game
5/9/2008
More than a month after Zimbabweans voted in harmonised elections on 29 March, they are none the wiser about who will be their next president. Although voting took place in a relatively peaceful environment, tensions have risen, along with reports of violence and intimidation, as the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) appears to be considering its options after losing its majority hold on power.
After years of apparent docility, the electorate delivered what has turned out to be a defining moment in Zimbabwe's ongoing crisis. The ruling party has lost control of the National Assembly. Of the declared Senate seats, ZANU-PF and the combined opposition were allocated an equal number of 30 each. The result of the presidential poll remained withheld until 2 May, when it was finally announced that Tsvangirai had beaten incumbent President Robert Mugabe, but not with the clear majority needed to avoid a run-off.
The country now faces a second-round run-off, although concerns have grown among the opposition, observers and international community about the environment in which a run-off will be held.
Looking ahead, various scenarios are possible. One involves further challenges by ZANU-PF to set aside the poll result and/or secure the presidency in a run-off. Should the opposition maintain its lead in the National Assembly, the president would have to attempt to rule without a majority in parliament, local government and other structures, but with control of the security forces. This would effectively mean that the status quo would continue, particularly if elected MDC officials refuse to take office under such circumstances or feel marginalised.
A second scenario may see Zimbabwe take a step back from a run-off, with the potential for increased violence leading to intervention by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) or other body.
A third possibility is the MDC calling for a Kenyan-style intervention, with Tsvangirai's MDC already having briefly engaged with SADC and the UN.
FORECAST |
| Although Tsvangirai would seem the most likely winner in a free and fair run-off, there are worrying signs that hardline ZANU-PF supporters would not support a regime change, giving cause for concern about increasing intimidation and violence ahead of the run-off. Without concerted and urgent efforts by SADC, the AU or another international body, the window of opportunity may soon be lost and the incumbent regime may yet continue to cling to power. |
Image: An opposition protestor holds a sign calling for Robert Mugabe's ejection from power.
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