Second division - Police-military tensions remain in East Timor

Eight years after East Timor's independence, international peacekeeping forces are scaling down their presence in the country. However, key divisions that shaped the violent clashes and political crisis in 2006 remain and have the potential to re-ignite. In particular, growing competition between the military and the police force raises the risk of confusion over their roles.

The risk factors in 2010 have the potential to undermine stability. The country's population is one of the world's fastest growing and two-thirds is under 30. A large proportion of the population has little or no memory of the resistance era that shaped the country's current leaders and their idea of national unity.

High population growth is putting pressure on the country's resources. The economy is struggling to meet the demand for new jobs and housing; although the economy is growing at a high pace, unemployment is high. As such, there remains potential for social discontent to spill over into violence.

In the short term, East Timor is likely to remain calm, but the risk of future conflict is not decreasing.