Red lines – Thailand’s political crisis reaches breaking point

Hopes that Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's 3 May offer to hold early elections would end the political crisis in Bangkok were almost immediately crushed. By 12 May, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), more commonly known as the Red Shirts, had rejected ending their two-month-old protests. The prime minister responded by withdrawing his proposal for November elections.

This leaves Thailand confronting ongoing political flux amid an increasingly volatile internal security situation. The presence of several former military officers in the Red Shirt ranks is no secret. These include Major-General Khattiya Sawasdipol (better known by his nickname Seh Daeng, translated as Commander Red), a 58-year-old officer with former counter-insurgency combat experience, who after months of open insubordination was suspended from duty early this year and subsequently charged with terrorism. The outspoken Maj Gen Khattiya emerged as a commander of the 'People's Army' and was often seen organising supporters on the barricades around the Red Shirt enclave in the Ratchaprasong area of central Bangkok. He was shot and seriously wounded on 13 May.

Arguably, the real danger in the months to come is of either a bungled crackdown in Bangkok or a military takeover in a chaotic run-up to, or aftermath of, elections. Either of these scenarios could provoke a backlash of Red Shirt guerrilla attacks across wide swathes of the north and northeast of the country. Dangerously unclear is how severe such attacks might be, how long they might last and what wider repercussions they might trigger.