Powder keg - Unfettered arms flows reflect Sudan's instability

Arms flows to Sudan, fuelled by oil revenues, have escalated since the signing of a 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that officially ended one of the country's civil wars. Almost five years later, the optimism that followed has been replaced by active preparations for the possibility of military confrontation and numerous accusations of double-dealing. Lt Gen James Hoth Mai, chief of staff of former rebel movement the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), noted in September that there was a 50 per cent chance of a return to war.

It is against this background of uncertainty and mistrust that both the SPLA and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are upgrading their military capabilities, and that arms supplies to Sudan, including to conflict-ridden Darfur, continue largely unfettered. This allows the parties to the CPA to engage with one another from a position of strength, and is a way of protecting the peace agreement, according to John Andruga Duku, the government of southern Sudan's (GoSS) head of mission in Nairobi. However, it also decreases any central monopoly on the ability to wage organised, armed violence and therefore increases the likelihood and scope of any further armed conflict, whether localised or full-scale.