Potential for renewed hostilities as Chad truce lapses

Rebels from the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) entered Hadjer Hadid, east of Abeche, with Reuters reporting the group's leaders stating their fighters had entered the town only to get water, although aid workers indicated that rebels and government forces exchanged fire in the town. Aid workers also told of an attack by unidentified gunmen on the town of Kou Kou Angarana, southwest of Abeche, later on 24 November, with two humanitarian workers and a Chadian security guard reported injured.

On 23 November, the UFDD and another Chadian rebel movement, the Rally of Forces for Change (RFC), had told AFP that a peace agreement signed with the government in Libya on 26 October would be "null and void" on 25 November and that the truce would therefore be at an end.

EVENT

Rebels clashed with security forces in eastern Chad on 24 November, shortly after announcing they would be abandoning a ceasefire agreement they had signed with the government in October.

FORECAST

A lapsing of the truce makes renewed hostilities more likely, aggravated by continued spillover from Darfur and sporadic ethnic clashes in eastern Chad, although regional actors such as Libya may make fresh efforts at reconciling the parties. It will be hoped that the planned deployment of a multi-dimensional peacekeeping mission, dominated by EU troops, for eastern Chad and north-eastern Central African Republic will boost security for the region's refugees and internally displaced people. However, renewed clashes and increased tensions will also make the environment more volatile for the deploying forces.