Political fallout - The threat to Pakistan's nuclear stability

On 28 November, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf stepped down as Pakistan's army chief and handed over control to General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, former vice chief of army staff and a Musharraf loyalist. Musharraf was sworn in as a civilian president on 29 November in an effort to dispel a growing political crisis between him and the Supreme Court and save his relationship with the military, who felt increasingly undermined by Musharraf's actions.

This unfolding political crisis has been compounded by increasing militancy in the country. Recently, pro-Taliban militants have successfully exercised and expanded their influence into the Swat Valley, a remote district 150 miles from Islamabad in the North West Frontier Province.

The jihadist takeover in the Swat Valley is exemplary of the pervasive situation in the tribal areas whereby militants are extending their influence and control beyond previous strongholds. While the troubles appear to be limited to the border region for now, the decrease in central government control over these areas has created a power vacuum that is being filled by jihadists. As this phenomenon increases in scope, concerns are mounting regarding the Pakistani government's ability to address and contain the influence of radical Islamists if its secular forces remain split.

These factors, the political crisis and expanding militancy, have raised international concerns regarding the safety and security of Islamabad's nuclear arsenal. Such concerns are compounded by a history of Pakistani nuclear indiscretions. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the nuclear scientist heralded as 'the father of the Pakistani bomb', was the head of a now infamous nuclear proliferation network that leaked sensitive atomic secrets. In addition, two Pakistani scientists met with Al-Qaeda members including Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in 2000 to discuss the possibility of acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Although all three factors are unrelated, and the prospect of a militant takeover of or Islamist government in Islamabad are remote, these incidents have raised concerns that, should Pakistan endure worsening political and security stability, individuals could take advantage and attempt to transfer sensitive nuclear information or sell fissile material. However, while some of this concern is justified, it is distinct from the current political and ideological crisis unfolding in Pakistan, and there is little reason for the heightened anxiety. 370 of 2,132