Northern explosion - Violence escalates in the North Caucasus

An escalation in violence in the North Caucasus suggests the conflict has completed its shift from a struggle for Chechen independence into a less Chechen-specific, multi-ethnic jihadist insurgency that has united the region's various local militant groups behind the goal of establishing an Islamic state.

The recent suicide attacks testify to the growing radicalisation and vigour of the Chechen insurgency after several years of severely reduced operational activity. The decline in violence was widely accredited to the brutal counter-insurgency tactics adopted by Chechnya's President Ramzan Kadyrov.

Over the past two years, jihadist groups have become much more closely aligned with the Chechen rebel movement, which has itself become more radical as secular elements have either been killed or co-opted by the authorities.

The radicalisation has also been provoked by repressive measures taken by the republican governments. Indiscriminate and heavy-handed tactics used by the security forces against suspected militants and devout Muslims encouraged many young victims to join radical groups.

If the jihadists can successfully take their war to the Russian heartland, they will make it virtually impossible to break the cycle of repression, radicalisation and violence that currently blights the North Caucasus.