Marriage of convenience - Colombian insurgents agree alliance

On 16 December 2009, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia: FARC) released a joint communiqué with the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional: ELN) that effectively ordered units from both groups to cease hostilities.

This agreement could represent a significant operational shift for the two groups, and could have positive implications for their ongoing existence and ability to continue their struggle against the state, which has launched a major military offensive since 2002 and put both groups on the defensive.

However, entrenched differences may hinder the development of a genuine alliance, with a cessation of hostilities being perhaps the best outcome the two leaderships can hope for.

The FARC-ELN agreement is demonstrative of a new stage in Colombia's civil conflict. The government's military offensive has created a situation where the FARC and the ELN must ally to survive. Their dwindling numbers and ongoing loss of territorial control have reached the point where they cannot afford not to agree a ceasefire, if not a full alliance.

What appears more likely is the establishment of local ceasefires, or less formal non-aggression pacts, allowing individual fronts to experience some relief from military pressure. A durable alliance in which the two groups closely co-ordinate activity and move towards acting as a single entity is highly unlikely. Nonetheless, the mooted alliance will act as a warning signal to the government that the insurgent groups are preparing themselves for greater resistance to Colombia's Plan Democratic Security.