JTIC Briefing: Afghanistan's bloody Sunday

Afghanistan's deadliest bombing to date is being held up as evidence that the Taliban is shifting towards Iraq-style extremism. Afghan insurgents are adopting more asymmetric tactics targeting the security forces and government officials, rather than civilians. However, the collateral damage caused by indiscriminate tactics is costing the Taliban support.

More than 100 people were killed during an incident at a dog fighting event outside Kandahar city on Sunday, 17 February. Reports suggest a suicide bomber approached a district police chief at the event, started an argument with him and then detonated his explosives once a crowd had formed around him.

The death toll of the Arghandab bombing superficially suggests it was intended to be a mass-casualty attack against civilians, a tactic used by extremists in Iraq to incite sectarian tensions, but not yet seen in Afghanistan. But it seems that the bomber was not responsible for all the casualties. Witnesses attribute many of the deaths to random gunfire following the explosion. It seems likely that one panicking militiaman opened fire and others joined in.

As with other attacks that have inflicted large numbers of civilian casualties, the Taliban denied any involvement in the Arghandab bombing. When contacted by Jane's, official spokesman Qari Yousuf Ahmadi condemned the bombing. However, recent events suggest the bombing was a continuation of the Taliban's efforts to take control of the Arghandab district.

While the bombing may have served a military purpose, the attack proved to be a public relations disaster for the Taliban. Locals were disgusted by the high number of civilian casualties and condemned the bombing as a grave sin against Islam.

Many observers see the Arghandab bombing as a sign that the Taliban is becoming more extreme as it adopts the tactics used by jihadists in Iraq. At the same time, the Taliban leadership is clearly becoming more sensitive about being associated with unpopular extremist activities.

However, the Arghandab bombing could have been perpetrated by extremists operating outside the control of the Taliban leadership. A new generation of more extreme Taliban leaders is emerging, according to US military officials. Sometimes referred to as 'neo-Taliban', these Afghan extremists supposedly have more in common with Al-Qaeda and pay little attention to the Taliban leadership.

The Arghandab bombing cannot be taken as evidence that extremists are now hijacking the insurgency in the south and the public anger generated by the bombing may actually encourage the Taliban to be more careful in the future as the death toll effectively handed the Afghan government and its foreign allies a propaganda victory.

While the Taliban promotes suicide bombings as the equivalent of the precision-guided munitions used by the foreign forces (a Taliban suicide bombing document seen by Jane's is entitled Omar's Missiles), the movement will find it hard to replicate the rules of engagement that govern NATO air strikes. 471 of 1,455 words