Insurgent submersibles

Is it possible that terrorists could launch a submarine attack? Jane's looks at the development of improvised semi- and fully-submersible vessels and assesses their use in offensive operations.

A terrorist submarine attack might seem like a James Bond scenario, but drug smugglers linked to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia: FARC) are already using semi-submersible vessels to transport multi-tonne cargoes of cocaine. Up to 40 such vessels left South American shores in 2007 and more are expected in 2008.

While these vessels are developed specifically for and financed by the illicit narcotics trade, it is not inconceivable that similar craft could be used in suicide attacks on targets such as warships or fuel tankers. A dramatic submersible strike would certainly appeal to Al-Qaeda, although small cells of jihadists would almost certainly find the technical and financial burdens difficult to overcome. With its history of innovation, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is the group most likely to deploy such weapons and tactics.

Semi-submersible vessels - in the form of sealed containers towed behind ships - have been used by drug smugglers for years. The development of self-propelled semi-submersible (SPSS) vessels is a more recent phenomenon.

Captain Robert Watts, a United States Coast Guard officer who has tracked maritime drug smuggling trends, told Jane's that the first experimental SPSS was found in Colombia in 1989. However, such vessels did not become practical until global position system (GPS) technology became widely available and the US and Colombian authorities began to effectively counter the ?go-fast' speedboats typically used by the smugglers, according to Capt Watts.

The growing numbers of SPSS vessels indicates that their stealthy characteristics and ability to carry many tonnes of cocaine have helped them develop into what now seems to be a major component of the narcotics logistics chain. The Colombian Navy believes that during the past two to three years, cocaine smuggling SPSS vessels have been arranged mostly by the drug trafficking factions of the FARC, probably in association with organised crime groups also involved in drug trafficking.

The involvement of Colombia's largest insurgent group raises the possibility of an attack being launched with an SPSS vessel. If a single cocaine smuggling SPSS can carry 10 tonnes of cargo, a small model would easily be able to carry enough high explosives to cause significant damage to any target vessel.

Image: This relatively small cocaine smuggling SPSS was captured off Costa Rica by the US Coast Guard in 2006. Around 15 metres long, it was capable of carry three tonnes of cocaine. 369 of 2,507 words