Hunger pains - The challenge of rising food costs

In the first half of 2008 global food prices soared, with the resulting shortages sparking violent protests in countries as diverse as Egypt, the Philippines and Haiti. However, while falling food prices since then have eased social tensions, these have the potential to revive during any future period of global food shortages.

Moreover, rather than being an anomalous spike that is unlikely to be repeated, the 2008 food price riots may mark the beginning of a structural shift in global food supply. The UN forecasts that the global population will rise from its estimate of 6.75 billion in mid-2008 to more than nine billion by 2050, and climate change is expected to exacerbate trends such as flooding, so food shortages may become a more pressing geopolitical issue. Given the violence of the 2008 riots, sustained shortages and associated price increases could become a driver for future violence and instability, particularly in the countries most immediately affected.