Georgia launches major assault on South Ossetia

The attack appears to be an attempt by Georgia to fully restore its control over the entire separatist territory, rather than a continuation of the sporadic tit-for-tat violence seen in the region over recent years. Georgian forces have mobilised its reserves and launched the attack using tanks, heavy artillery, Grad multiple-barrel rocket launchers and Su-25 attack aircraft in support of its infantry.

Russia, South Ossetia's main supporter, has so far been slow to take concrete actions, although Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised a response to what he described as Georgian aggression. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also called a meeting of his Security Council to discuss possible responses. Tbilisi has already claimed that Russian Su-24 strike aircraft entered its territory and launched air strikes just south of the separatist region. Russia currently maintains 500 lightly armed peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia.

EVENT

Georgian military forces launched a major attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia on 8 August.

FORECAST

Should fighting continue, as it is likely to over coming days, Russia looks set to respond. Initially this is likely to take the form of air strikes, although the possibility remains that troops, such as airborne units stationed in Russia's North Caucasus region, could also be deployed. Such a development would mark a major escalation of the conflict and potentially lead to wider regional instability.