Executive Overview: Strategic Weapons

The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) gave details of the perceived threat in their 'Missile Defense Program', published in August 2009. This report listed three countries of concern, North Korea (DPRK), Iran and Syria. There were estimated to be some 5,900 operational ballistic missiles, excluding China, NATO Europe, Russia and the US. However, it was stated that of these missiles, around 5,500 had ranges below 1,000 km. A South Korean report in March 2010 suggested that there were 1,000 ballistic missiles operational in North Korea, and that the country was building 100 new missiles a year.

Unfortunately, these reports were short on detail, and did not give any breakdown of their figures. They did not list the missiles that were tested, their achieved ranges, or whether or not they were successful. Whilst the North Korean flight tests have been generally well reported in the media, little information has been made available about Iranian or Syrian tests. In addition, little information has been released on Chinese missile developments or flight tests. It seems clear that the Chinese general military and space developments go far beyond a conflict over Taiwan, and are aimed at creating a regional and possibly global capability.

Nuclear-armed ballistic missiles have always been a major concern, due to their speed and the difficulties for a defensive system to react in time. Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) can cover 8,000 km or more in half an hour, and Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) can cover 1,000 km in eight or nine minutes. Countries are particularly concerned as any possibility of their use, or sudden change in their deployment, might be regarded as a threat. This makes nuclear missiles a political as much as a military threat. There would appear to be three reasons for a country to develop nuclear missiles. The first is to deter attack from another country, the second is for regional power projection, and the third is to destabilise a region.

However, the risk of direct confrontation, according to this Editor, seems to be unlikely when considering nuclear armed countries. It seems unlikely that either North Korea or a nuclear-armed Iran would use nuclear missiles against the US, or their friends and allies, and risk a massive retaliation in return. It also seems unlikely that North Korea would launch a nuclear missile attack on South Korea, as the fall-out could move quickly from one country to the other. It seems more likely that unattributable or indirect attacks might be used, so that the instigator could not easily be traced.