Cold Turkey for army after AKP poll win

With a whopping 47 per cent of the vote, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan could afford to be magnanimous in victory. In the wake of a general election that saw a sweeping endorsement of his ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi: AKP), Erdogan promised: "We will never make concessions over the values of people, the basic principles of our republic. This is our promise. We will embrace Turkey as a whole without discriminating."

That embrace could even include the Kurds of the poor southeast, who voted in large numbers for the AKP, doubling the party's vote in some areas. Also returned were 24 Kurdish deputies of the Democratic Society Party (Demokratik Toplum Partisi: DTP) standing as independents, making the party a tempting potential partner for the AKP should it decide to aim for the two-thirds majority of the 550-seat assembly needed to make constitutional changes.

However, it remains to be seen whether the AKP's generosity extends to soothing the fears of the secular elite, and in particular the military, who didn't hesitate to rattle their sabres earlier in the year when the AKP nominated the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah Gul for president. Gul comes from the pious Anatolian city of Kayseri, and his wife wears a headscarf, the latter a highly contentious issue in a country founded on secular principles so unbending that covered women may not study at university.

The first attempt at finding a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer triggered a political crisis that forced Erdogan to call early elections. Lacking a two-thirds majority in parliament following an opposition boycott, the AKP's attempt to push through Gul's nomination ended with the secular Constitutional Court declaring the vote inquorate and therefore invalid, although, as critics pointed out, many previous Turkish presidents have been elected without such a majority.

FORECAST

Should Erdogan present a compromise candidate for president, the military will be forced to remain in its barracks. This calming of tensions, coupled with Erdogan's renewed mandate, could see the AKP capitalise on the election result to push for constitutional changes - including the direct election of future presidents - that could have long-term ramifications for the future of Turkey. 367 of 1,036 words