China-US hotline could stay cool

On 10 April, Chinese General Liang Guanglie and United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates conducted their first phone conversation using the new "hotline" linking the Chinese and US defence establishments. During the call, Liang berated Gates for selling arms to Taiwan and for maintaining ties with the Taiwanese defence community. Gates in turn warned Liang that Washington would resist attempts by either Beijing or Taipei to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.

The exchange epitomises why the Sino-American military hotline is unlikely to overcome the misunderstandings, misperceptions and genuine political-military differences dividing the Chinese and US defence and intelligence communities. A direct phone connection between two parties works only when the both sides are willing to listen. In past crises, the Chinese interlocutors would often not even bother to pick up the phone.

Several prominent examples of Sino-US confrontations, as well as those regarding recurring mainland threats against Taiwan, abruptly ended past efforts at constructing a sustained defence dialogue between the two countries. In each case, the problem was not that Chinese and US officials lacked the means to communicate. Rather, it was that intelligence failures on the US side, reinforced by Chinese aversion to genuine defence transparency, presented insurmountable obstacles to attempts to communicate.

US officials have long encouraged the Chinese government to make its military budget and planning more transparent to minimise misunderstandings. Although Chinese leaders continue to evince a strong aversion to genuine military transparency, they have taken few steps to address US complaints about a perceived lack of reciprocity in the bilateral defence relationship. Beijing remains concerned that improved transparency could provide US military intelligence with insights into China's defence vulnerabilities. Chinese strategists also adhere to a tradition that lauds deception as a means to confuse potential opponents.

It took years of US lobbying to persuade Beijing to accept Washington's long-standing proposal to establish a hotline between the Pentagon and the Chinese Defence Ministry. US planners believe the direct link could facilitate communications during a crisis, but the Chinese political leadership has made clear its determination to maintain tight control over any Sino-US dialogue in a future military confrontation. When the next Sino-US military crisis occurs, the Pentagon is likely to find the Chinese military unresponsive, no matter how many direct calls it places. 381 of 1,003 words