Afghan Whigs jostle for the presidency

Hamed Karzai became Afghanistan's first democratically elected president in December 2004. The relative success of these elections led many observers to conclude that the country had turned a corner and that it was only a matter of time before genuine stability would follow.

The next presidential ballot, due in August 2009, will be held against a far more pessimistic backdrop. The security situation is so poor in many eastern and southern provinces that, for many people, the risks inherent in casting a vote may outweigh any benefit of having a direct say in who becomes the next president.

In addition to the perilous security backdrop, the capacity of Afghanistan to hold an election free from external influence is open to question. Internally, the country's political veterans can be expected to try and fix the election in favour of the status quo, enabling them to preserve their regional fiefdoms.