Press Release

26 June 2008

Contact:

Mandy Castle
Jane’s Information Group
Press & PR Officer
+44 (0) 208 700 3745
amanda.castle@janes.com

Satellite Imagery Confirms Mistrust Between Syria and Israel

London (June 25, 2008) -- Commercially available imagery obtained by Jane’s from DigitalGlobe suggests Syrian troops are deployed on Lebanese territory and were reinforced in early 2008, just ahead of Israel’s largest ever civilian and military war drill. The deployment suggests mutual mistrust remains and hence peace negotiations will struggle to succeed.

Syria and Israel confirmed secret peace negotiations in April and May.
However, both countries are negotiating from a position of domestic weakness and hence agreement is likely to be difficult.
The mistrust in the region that undermines such talks is reflected by increased Syrian deployments on Lebanese territory that is confirmed by commercial digital imagery obtained by Jane’s.

The little-known presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon demonstrates that, despite the peace talks between the two sides confirmed in simultaneous announcements in Syria and Israel on 21 May 2008, mutual mistrust continues to characterise regional relationships. As a result, despite the recognition of peace talks, negotiations are likely to be fraught while military preparedness will remain high.

Christian Le Miere, managing editor, Jane’s Country Risk, commented “Securing a lasting peace deal between the two countries is unlikely in the near future for two main reasons. First, the leaderships of Israel and Syria are operating from positions of weakness. Second, Syria is refusing to drop its backing for groups such as Hizbullah and to distance itself from Iran.”

Troop Deployment

Given these issues, mistrust remains between the two regional rivals and hence military preparedness remains high. Syria appears to continue to deploy troops on Lebanese soil in the remote and rugged hills north of the town of Rashaya al-Wadi, despite Damascus having ended its military occupation of Lebanon in April 2005. The Syrian positions in Lebanon appear designed purely as a forward defensive line in the case of any Israeli advance and not as conduits for weaponry smuggled from Syria to Hizbullah. Hizbullah receives much of its armaments along the border in the northern Bekaa Valley adjacent to Shia areas under the group’s control. The villages surrounding the Syrian posts in the southeast Bekaa are populated by Christians and Druze.

Further commercial satellite imagery obtained by Jane’s from DigitalGlobe from 24 December 2006 and 12 March 2008 suggest that Syria has undertaken a moderate increase in its equipment and therefore its activity at the apparent Syrian military bases on Lebanese soil. The new equipment includes what appears to be towed and self-propelled artillery and a T-54/55 tank.

Human intelligence verification of the increase in activity is impossible: in late 2005, the Lebanese Armed Forces sealed off the hills to the east of Kfar Qouk. An LAF checkpoint at the junction of the only road leading to Deir al-Ashayer bars all but local residents from reaching the village. The nearby village of Halwa is also sealed off by the army. Although there are no Syrian army bases in the vicinity of Halwa, there are several small outposts manned by pro-Damascus Palestinian groups such as Fatah Intifada and As-Saiqa. These outposts are linked to Syria by unpatrolled dirt tracks used by commercial smugglers as well as militants for resupplying equipment and personnel.

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Editor’s notes:

For a copy of the full article and to receive the satellite pictures or to interview Christian Le Miere, managing editor, Jane’s Country Risk, please contact Mandy Castle, PR manager, Jane's Information Group (contact details at top of page).

About Jane’s Information Group

Jane’s, an IHS company (NYSE: IHS), is the leading open source information provider and conference organiser on defense, international risk and national security to governments, militaries, industries and academia around the globe. Jane’s is headquartered in London, and also has offices in Alexandria, Virginia; Singapore; Tokyo; Dubai; and Sydney, Australia. For more information, please visit our award-winning website, www.janes.com.

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