Non-Subscriber Extract
Boeing eyes resilient market
By Jim Smith
19 June 2009
Aircraft manufacturer Boeing forecasts a USD3.2 trillion market for new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years and takes into account the industry's near-term realities, including a global economic recession, declining passenger and cargo traffic, and unpredictable fuel prices.
The Boeing 2009 Current Market Outlook report, which was released on 11 June, foresees a market for 29,000 new commercial passenger and freighter aircraft by 2028. The market breaks down into: 19,460 single-aisle aircraft, worth some USD1.42 trillion; 6,700 twin-aisle aircraft, valued at some USD1.51 trillion; and 740 large units - mostly replacement aircraft - valued at about USD220 billion.
The Boeing analysis shows that over time, the commercial aircraft market will stabilise and economic growth will return. Boeing expects passenger traffic to grow at an average rate of 4.9 per cent each year for the next 20 years.
Demand globally remains strong for new, more efficient commercial aircraft in response to high fuel prices, ageing fleets and environmental concerns, according to the study.
<Table border="0" cellspacing="20">
<tr><th>Aircraft in service</th></tr>
<tr><td>2008 and 2028 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Size </td><td>2008 </td><td>2028 </td></tr><tr><td>Large </td><td>870 </td><td>1,070 </td></tr><tr><td>Twin aisle </td><td>3,510 </td><td>8,080 </td></tr><tr><td>Single aisle </td><td>11,360 </td><td>24,230 </td></tr><tr><td>Regional jets </td><td>3,060 </td><td>2,220 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Total </td><td>18,800 </td><td>35,600 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Source: Boeing </td></tr></table>
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<Table border="0" cellspacing="20">
<tr><td>Key indicators</td></tr>
<tr><td>2008 and 2028 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Growth measures </td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>World economy (GDP)</td><td>3.1% </td></tr><tr><td>Aircraft fleet </td><td>3.2% </td></tr><tr><td>No of passengers </td><td>4.1% </td></tr><tr><td>Airline traffic - Revenue passenger km </td><td>4.9% </td></tr><tr><td>Cargo traffic - Revenue tonne km </td><td>5.4% </td></tr>
<tr><td>Source: Boeing </td></tr></table>
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