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Iraq warns Turkey over threat of military incursion

17 October 2007

EVENT

The Iraqi government on 15 October called an emergency meeting to discuss a Turkish cabinet decision to ask parliament for permission to send troops into Iraq against militants from the Workers' Party of Kurdistan (Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan: PKK).

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called on his senior advisors to meet on 16 October to discuss the developments in Turkey and offered "urgent negotiations" with senior Turkish officials over the situation in northern Iraq. However, he warned that Iraq would "never accept a military solution to the differences between Turkey and Iraq".

Maliki's comments came after the Turkish cabinet approved a request from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to submit a motion to parliament seeking authorisation for military action.

FORECAST

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi: AKP) did well in Kurdish areas in the July elections, and, coupled with his own reinforced legitimacy engendered by the AKP's electoral gains, should be able to hold off from military action at least until the spring. However, the current deteriorating relations with the US could undermine his position if he is seen to be avoiding military action to appease his NATO allies, and any increase in PKK attacks could yet force Erdogan's hand.

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© 2007 Jane's Information Group

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