Non-Subscriber ExtractPowder keg - Unfettered arms flows reflect Sudan's instability |
 |
|
18 November 2009
Jane's satellite imagery analysis from March to May 2009 shows a pattern of tanks making their way north from the port of Mombasa. Satellite imagery captured at the same time in South Sudan showed ongoing construction at an SPLA compound several kilometres northeast of Juba (image A). That GeoEye-1 satellite image revealed tracked vehicles staged throughout the military facility and concealed under camouflage. In early May 2009, Jane's received photographic evidence of the SPLA facility at Juba, revealing the presence of nine new tracked vehicles in the compound's staging area. DigitalGlobe's QuickBird satellite captured an image on 17 May that revealed that the same area had been levelled and three additional vehicles - for a total of 12 - were present (image B). Tracked vehicle scarring, more evident in the soil because of a recent rainfall, was not only present around the staged vehicles but was traced 4 km south to the taxiway at Juba's airfield, indicating that these vehicles were airlifted to Sudan, probably in early May, and driven to the SPLA facility (image C). (2009 DigitalGlobe)
Arms flows to Sudan, fuelled by oil revenues, have escalated since the signing of a 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that officially ended one of the country's civil wars. Almost five years later, the optimism that followed has been replaced by active preparations for the possibility of military confrontation and numerous accusations of double-dealing. Lt Gen James Hoth Mai, chief of staff of former rebel movement the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), noted in September that there was a 50 per cent chance of a return to war.
It is against this background of uncertainty and mistrust that both the SPLA and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are upgrading their military capabilities, and that arms supplies to Sudan, including to conflict-ridden Darfur, continue largely unfettered. This allows the parties to the CPA to engage with one another from a position of strength, and is a way of protecting the peace agreement, according to John Andruga Duku, the government of southern Sudan's (GoSS) head of mission in Nairobi. However, it also decreases any central monopoly on the ability to wage organised, armed violence and therefore increases the likelihood and scope of any further armed conflict, whether localised or full-scale.