Non-Subscriber Extract
Road to nowhere - Myanmar's junta holds steady
19 October 2007
Hopes that thousands of monks, marching with purpose through downtown Yangon in protest of Myanmar's ruling junta, would usher in a new era were swiftly and decisively dashed in late September. The successful crackdown on the monk-led demonstrations - following an unusual display of restraint by the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) - emphatically restored the status quo, with the junta's grip on power remaining as firm as ever.
As a result, despite international pressure, as highlighted by UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari's September visit to Myanmar, there is little evidence to suggest the military regime's authority has been eroded. This is partly due to the absence of a cohesive or organised opposition. Moreover, despite the growing frailty of Myanmar's senior leadership - as evidenced by Prime Minister General Soe Win's death on 12 October - it is likely that an emerging younger generation of military officers assuming control in the medium term will follow the same policies that have preserved the Tatmadaw's (armed forces) sovereignty.
The recent spate of protests began not as a political movement, but an economic demonstration. On 15 August, the ruling junta reduced fuel subsidies, resulting in increases in petrol prices of 100 per cent and in compressed natural gas (CNG) prices of 500 per cent. The hike had little impact on the majority of the population, who do not use CNG and rely on the black market for petrol, where prices further soared compared to those in state-subsidised filling stations. However, the CNG price rise had a devastating affect on Myanmar's urban poor populace, particularly in Yangon - the country's largest city and commercial capital - where bus fares doubled overnight accounting for, in some cases, almost 40 per cent of a worker's daily income of about MMK1,000 (approximately USD0.75).
The government's action was a gift to its political opponents, especially the '88 Generation' group of former student activists who had become increasingly active during the past year. On 19 August, a series of protest marches took place in Yangon. As the pictures related via mobile telephones to the international press revealed, the initial protests were quite small. Groups of probably no more than 30 or 40 people were photographed walking relatively short distances down major thoroughfares in the former capital.
The areas chosen for the demonstrations were the same places that had witnessed anti-government protests in the past, such as the traffic lights at the Hledan junction where Insein Road, Pyay Road and University Avenue intersect, near the campus of Yangon University's postgraduate centre. The protestors waved at passers-by in crowded buses and cars who responded by waving back. Such greetings were interpreted by the international media as signs of mass support rather than reciprocation of friendly acts by unknown strangers. The authorities failed to take any notice of the protests and as such, additional demonstrations subsequently occurred in other parts of the city. However, as the international media campaign grew, the junta encouraged, if not organised, local thugs to harass the protestors, thereby 'forcing' security officials to arrest and detain activist leaders. The arrests quelled the protests and, as a result, an alleged march on Yangon from the distant town of Laputta failed to materialise and the commercial hub soon returned to normal.