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Non-Subscriber Extract

Bhutto assassinated

By Damian Kemp

27 December 2007

EVENT

Former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated during an election rally in the city of Rawalpindi on 27 December.

The attack, which killed between 15 and 20 other people, occurred at about 1816 h local time (1316 GMT). The perpetrators of the attack are unknown, but several groups or individuals could be suspected. Bhutto survived a suicide attack on her convoy on 18 October (upon her return to the country from exile) that killed almost 140 people, and she accused Islamist militants and representatives of the former administration of President Zia ul-Haq of trying to kill her (Zia overthrew Bhutto's father, then-prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, in a coup in 1977; Zulfikar Bhutto was executed in 1979). She also accused the government of failing to provide enough security for her convoy.

FORECAST

The assassination of Bhutto is the latest in a series of Bhutto assassinations (both Bhutto's brothers were killed in 1985 and 1996, the former Shah Nawaz in unknown circumstances, the latter Mir Murtaza in a shootout with police). The timing of the event, and the manner in which it was undertaken suggests that violence will increase in coming weeks. While this could encourage military intervention, which although an improbable outcome could perhaps stabilise a country that has seen three coups and a variety of unstable governments, at the very least the assassination has created a high degree of uncertainty in coming days.

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© 2007 Jane's Information Group