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Non-Subscriber Extract

Pakistan commandos clear Red Mosque

13 July 2007

EVENT
The Pakistani government declared on 11 July that Special Service Group commandos had eradicated the militant presence in Islamabad's Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) following their storming of the besieged complex on 10 July. The leader of the militants and deputy cleric of the mosque, Abdul Rashid Ghazi, was reportedly killed in the crossfire.

The bloody operation has furthered damage President Pervez Musharraf's weakening political credibility in light of the mounting anti-government sentiment following his dismissal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry in March.

However, Musharraf's handling of the Lal Masjid standoff also demonstrated a degree of restraint. Following gun battles between militants in and paramilitary rangers guarding the mosque on 3 July, commandos surrounded the compound and appeared to be preparing for an all-out assault. However, Musharraf appeared reluctant to give the order to storm the Lal Masjid and instead attempted to negotiate with Abdul Rashid.

FORECAST
The death of Ahmed Rashid could further galvanise anti-Musharraf sentiment among Islamists, raising the risk of retaliatory extremist attacks across the country, particularly in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Province. However, the likelihood of extremist Islamists taking power with popular backing remains remote.

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© 2007 Jane's Information Group

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