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Thaksin's Thai return
11 March 2008
The image of Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra touching the ground with his forehead after emerging from Suvarnabhumi airport on 28 February and his subsequent claim that he will not return to the political stage have underscored the murky state of Thai politics.
His assertion that "I just want to enjoy the last stages of my life with my family in my country" rang hollow as movements below the surface point to the likelihood of him attempting a political comeback.
Thaksin's return was preceded by intense negotiations between his allies and those close to the former ruling junta, which ousted him in September 2006. These allies now comprise the senior echelons of the new pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP)-led government. While his return signals a short-term truce between the former premier and the old-power triangle, comprising royalists, the military and the bureaucracy, it is likely to further polarise the political landscape and thrust Thailand into more political uncertainty.
Reshuffling bureaucrats is likely to be only the first stage of Thaksin's comeback strategy. Sources within the PPP and close to Thaksin have confirmed the intention of amending the constitution and seeking an amnesty for Thaksin and the other 111 former members of the Thai Rak Thai party, who are banned from politics for four more years. These moves are likely to rattle the truce and lead to more political instability.
The clash between the old power triangle and Thaksin will mostly be played out behind the scenes. However, there is a risk that it could spill on to the streets under the guise of demonstrations by the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which led the protests against the former premier in 2006, and the pro-Thaksin Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD).
FORECAST |
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Thaksin's political comeback is likely to be far from smooth. Tensions within the PPP, as well as between him and the old power triangle, are set to rise over the short term with the possibility of some social unrest in Bangkok in the medium term. |