Non-Subscriber Extract
Colombian conflict turns contagious
04 March 2008
On 1 March, the Colombian military killed Raul Reyes, suspected second-in-command of the terrorist insurgent group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia: FARC). The strike was carried out inside Ecuadorian territory, sparking a diplomatic stand-off between Colombia and Ecuador.
Reyes' death, the most senior guerrilla casualty in 40 years of conflict, indicates very strongly that Colombian intelligence has now penetrated close to the heart of the guerrillas' command and control structure. Viewed alongside persistent reports from demobilised guerrillas that cohesion and morale are collapsing within the FARC's middle ranks, Reyes' killing represents a serious setback for the insurgency.
Equally significant was the accusation by Colombian national police commander Oscar Naranjo that his personnel had discovered documents in Reyes' camp clearly demonstrating high-level meetings between Reyes and senior members of the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan governments in the weeks prior to his death.
Although covert links between Quito, Caracas and the FARC have long been suspected, documentary evidence of systematic collusion is potentially hugely embarrassing for the government of Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. Quito issued a brisk denial of Naranjo's accusation, but it appears significant that the Ecuadorian reaction to Colombia's border incursion was initially more restrained than that of Venezuela, which deployed troops to its border with Colombia.
These developments were quickly drowned out by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' threat of war. The potential for armed conflict between Colombia and Venezuela cannot be discounted entirely, and it is clear the potential for escalation or miscalculation on either side is heightened in such a tense political environment. However, Chavez' intervention is significant primarily as an indicator of his own rapidly weakening grip on power.
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As in Pakistan after the allied campaign against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, FARC sympathisers and networks in Ecuador and Venezuela could enable the group to shift its power base if the security environment continues to deteriorate in Colombia. Although the FARC will continue to concentrate in the remote border areas, far from the main population centres, an increased guerrilla presence will have destabilising consequences for Ecuador and Venezuela, especially when those countries eventually depart form their current leftist political trajectories. |