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Non-Subscriber Extract

Cyprus poll goes down to the wire

13 February 2008

As Greek Cypriots go to the polls on 17 February in the first round of voting to elect a new president, they face a choice: do they put their desire for a solution to the island's division above economic stability? And can they bear to cross ideological lines?

With just days to go before the polls, the vote appears almost evenly divided between the three candidates: incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos; Dimitris Christofias, the leader of the Cypriot communist party; and Ioannis Cassoulides, who is supported by the main right-wing party Democratic Rally (DISY).

Papadopoulos currently has a slight edge over his rivals. Under the rules, if no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, the two leading candidates will go forward into a second round run-off.

At the moment, therefore, the smart money is on a second round decider between Papadopoulos and Christofias. If this is the case, it will put the DISY voters in a terrible bind. If it is a solution they are after, Christofias is seen as the better bet. However, it will not be easy for most on the Cypriot right to put aside decades of ideological tension and vote for a communist candidate.

If, on the other hand, DISY vote with their pockets, then Papadopoulos would be the choice; even though they know his victory would take the island one step closer to partition.

FORECAST

There is still hope that DISY might be willing to forge a grand coalition with the communist party and back a single candidate following the first round, therefore sparing the losing party's voters the agony of choosing the lesser of two evils. If they do not, however, it would be wrong to assume that a victory by Papadopoulos signifies that Greek Cypriots do not want a settlement. Polls show most voters still favour a solution. It's just that they place economic stability much higher up in their immediate list of priorities.

Image: Female supporters of the communist AKEL party celebrate the results of the parliamentary elections in the capital Nicosia, Cyprus, on 21 May 2006 in which the communist party won 31.13 per cent of the vote. (PA)

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© 2008 Jane's Information Group

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