Non-Subscriber Extract
Israel shudders after Gaza and Winograd
08 February 2008
Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert has emerged battered but unbowed after three weeks that have seen the imposition, then lifting of a hermetic siege on Gaza, the subsequent breaching of the Gaza-Egypt border fence, the first suicide bomb attack in Israel since January 2007 and the publication of the Winograd Commission's report into the 2006 war in Lebanon.
Domestic shock at the suicide attack in Dimona on 4 February was considerable. Israel has become accustomed to the almost daily barrage of Qassam rockets emanating from the northern Gaza Strip, but suicide attacks have become rare occurrences in the past three years.
The government and military's inability to effectively counter the Qassam attacks has become a proverbial thorn in their side, with increased calls from the nationalist Likud opposition for a more robust military response. Olmert has resisted, fearing the deaths of large numbers of Palestinians will see Israel accused of trying to scupper the newly reborn peace process with the Palestinians.
Olmert's strategy of negotiating with the Palestinians is stretching the composition of his governing coalition to breaking point. With these problems already piled up, the Winograd Commission, who investigated the conduct of the government and armed forces during the 2006 war in Lebanon released its report on 30 January.
The report had the potential to fatally undermine Olmert but, as it turned out, it largely exonerated him of responsibility for many of the "grave faults" it identified in the prosecution of the war. Instead, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) bore the brunt of the commission's criticisms, although this did not stop the opposition assailing the prime minister.
Unless the commission had specifically called for Olmert's resignation, there was little chance of this occurring and even before the report's publication he said he had no intention of resigning.
If there were an election in Israel tomorrow, Labour and Kadima would probably be beaten by Likud. But despite all these trials, Olmert remains in office. Whether he remains in power is another issue.
FORECAST |
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Barring further catastrophes, the likelihood of Olmert and his government serving out their full terms until 2010 has improved. The prospect of electoral defeat will ensure Labour remains a coalition partner. However, the conduct of negotiations with the Palestinians remains a cloud on the horizon that signals further domestic and international political turbulence in the coming months. |