Non-Subscriber Extract
Mission improbable - Could Israel attack Iran?
By Tim Ripley
22 October 2007
The 6 September Israeli air strike in Syria led to a rash of speculation that the Jewish state had struck a target of strategic significance. So far, little verifiable information has emerged about what facilities were destroyed, but it has dramatically raised the already existing tension between Israel and her adversaries in Syria and Iran.
Israeli government leaders continue to accuse Syria of actively co-operating with Tehran and this, combined with the demonstration of Israel's ability and will to use its long-range aircraft to strike at regional states, has heightened speculation that Iran may soon become a target for Israeli air power. This has been exacerbated by media conjecture that the 6 September incident was an Israeli attempt to try probing around the northern edge of the Syrian air defence network along the Turkish border to find a 'corridor' towards Iran.
A further permutation on this theory is that the operation was meant to be detected to deceive the Iranians into thinking any Israeli air strike aimed at their nuclear sites would come over northern Iraq and force them to divert more air defence assets to this region, leaving other sectors more vulnerable.
While there is no corroborating evidence to support either of these theories, they highlight the possibility of an Israeli air strike on Iran. However, although the Israeli government has ramped up its rhetorical attacks on Iran in recent months it is still highly doubtful that Israel could launch a successful operation that would inflict long-term damage on Tehran's nuclear infrastructure or force Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to abandon his anti-Israeli and US policies.
The primary problem for any Israeli operation in Iran is range. With no aircraft carriers or forward operating bases outside its territory, any attack by Israel on Iran would necessarily involve either its ballistic missiles or its long-range aircraft.
The total number of Iranian nuclear sites are unknown, although more than 10 sites have been associated with Iran's nuclear projects by the US and Israel. Of these, the two most likely to be targeted by Israel would be the as yet unfinished 1,000 MW reactor at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf coast and the suspected uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, 60 km southeast of Kashan in central Esfahan province. Bushehr and Natanz are clearly the centre of the Iranian programme, as the former could provide spent fuel for enrichment and the latter could theoretically turn that material into weapon-grade assets. Without these sites any Iranian nuclear weapon project would be unlikely to succeed.