Non-Subscriber Extract
Blind lead the blind in Haiti
10 April 2008
After signs that the security situation in Haiti was improving during late 2007, on 2 April UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon delivered a grim assessment of a country once again at risk of regression into instability. Two days later, anti-government protests escalated into violence and an attack on a UN base in the southwestern town of Les Cayes.
It is tempting to describe the situation as a classic case of one step forward and two steps back, but this would be a simplistic portrayal of Haiti's chaotic and frequently brutal variant of stabilisation and reconstruction.
In February, Jane's reported that 2007 was a year marked by modest progress, particularly in reducing kidnapping rates and driving armed gangs out of the notorious Cite Soleil district of the capital Port-au-Prince. The latest UN report suggests this progress was fleeting and that several parts of Port-au-Prince have subsequently seen an increase in criminality, and especially kidnapping.
The report also warns that gangs are re-organising themselves following the setbacks of 2007, which if true is likely to precipitate fresh waves of violence in areas previously considered pacified by the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH).
Anti-government demonstrations have also increased, with a particular focus on rising costs of living resulting from high international commodity prices. The UN warns that those who perceive their interests to be threatened by political reforms could seek to foster and manipulate further disturbances in the coming months.
Although the UN cites modest improvements in judicial reform and strengthening of the Haitian National Police (Police Nationale d'Haiti: PNH), it is cautious about the extent and durability of progress achieved since the election of President Rene Preval in February 2006.
FORECAST |
|
A destabilising crisis is unlikely this year, but the familiar cycle of violence and volatility will continue, in turn discouraging the foreign investment that is vital if Haiti is to make inroads into the chronic economic and social problems that underpin the violence and insecurity. As such, it remains constantly on the cusp of a humanitarian emergency. |