Non-Subscriber Extract
Kenya: Teetering on the brink?
03 January 2008
In the run-up to Kenya's presidential elections on 27 December 2007, few people could have predicted the extent of the dramatic deterioration in political, social and security conditions witnessed in Kenya in the immediate aftermath of the vote. A senior local broadcast journalist confidently told Jane's just a few days before Christmas: "This is a very different election from the one we had five years ago. Last time, people were stocking up on food and water, expecting that there would be trouble. You will not see that this time. We have moved beyond that kind of culture now: democracy has taken root."
Yet, despite a largely peaceful vote on the polling day, the elections have been violently disputed. Two human rights groups (the Kenyan Human Rights Commission and the International Federation for Human Rights) said on 2 January that the death toll had topped 300. The most significant incident came on New Year's Day, when up to 50 people were burned alive while sheltering in a church. The victims belonged to the Kikuyu tribe, the same tribe as the country's re-elected, but now disputed, President Mwai Kibaki. His main presidential challenger in the election was Raila Odinga, an ethnic Luo.
Image: President Mwai Kibaki (Whitehouse.gov)
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Given that Odinga is such a strong and forceful character, it appears unlikely he will back down to any significant degree, creating the worst case scenario prospect of an extended political crisis and escalating tribal-based violence. To avoid this outcome, Kibaki will need to compromise. One idea currently being mooted is that the international community could send a team of observers to audit and recount the election results. While palatable to Odinga, Kibaki and his Kikuyu supporters are unlikely to easily accept this outcome, and even less likely to accept any reversal in their electoral fortunes should international pressure mount to such an extent as to compel a recount. Outright civil war is improbable given the international interest in the country, but Kenya still faces weeks, if not months, of political uncertainty and instability. |