Jane's Country Risk News

Nicaragua braces for street violence

A protester fires a home-made mortar during a previous demonstration outside the US Embassy in Managua, 29 October. (PA)

On 17 November, students attacked the National Congress with home-made mortars as pro- and anti-government supporters prepared for a confrontation expected to turn violent on 21 November.

19 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: US brokers a compromise in Honduras crisis

Powder keg - Unfettered arms flows reflect Sudan's instability

Jane's satellite imagery analysis from March to May 2009 shows a pattern of tanks making their way north from the port of Mombasa. Satellite imagery captured at the same time in South Sudan showed ongoing construction at an SPLA compound several kilometres northeast of Juba (image A). That GeoEye-1 satellite image revealed tracked vehicles staged throughout the military facility and concealed under camouflage. In early May 2009, Jane's received photographic evidence of the SPLA facility at Juba, revealing the presence of nine new tracked vehicles in the compound's staging area. DigitalGlobe's QuickBird satellite captured an image on 17 May that revealed that the same area had been levelled and three additional vehicles - for a total of 12 - were present (image B). Tracked vehicle scarring, more evident in the soil because of a recent rainfall, was not only present around the staged vehicles but was traced 4 km south to the taxiway at Juba's airfield, indicating that these vehicles were airlifted to Sudan, probably in early May, and driven to the SPLA facility (image C). (2009 DigitalGlobe)

Despite a peace agreement in 2005, weapons flows to both northern and southern Sudan continue to increase. Jane's explains how this could lead to further conflict.

18 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Opportunity cost - Oil fuels tension in run-up to Sudan referendum

Colombia anticipates clash with Venezuela

A Venezuelan soldier stands behind a map showing where troops have been deployed along the Colombian border in Cedeno, Venezuela, on 5 November 2009. (PA)

After calling for his country to "prepare for war" with Colombia, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez on 13 November claimed that Colombia and the US had a "diabolical" plan to invade Venezuela.

17 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Venezuela formalises national militia

Battle royal - Thailand contemplates life after King Bhumibol

Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej appears in public at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok on 23 October. No official diagnosis has been given for his illness, making it more difficult to gauge the true state of his health. (Press Association)

The poor health of King Bhumibol has forced Thais to imagine a future without him, and with the country in a political crisis his succession is of great importance.

13 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Thai prime minister deposed in name of monarchy amid political uncertainty

Making waves - Naval power evolves for the 21st century

A ceremony is held before a Chinese naval fleet sets sail from a port in Sanya city on China's southernmost island province of Hainan on 26 December 2008. China is one of the Asian countries developing their naval capabilities to include blue-water sea control and power projection as well as their traditional areas of coastal defence and localised sea control. (PA)

As the requirements of maritime military involvement develop, defence planners are having to consider non-state threats ranging from terrorism to piracy, as well as national security objectives.

17 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Secret Sanya - China's new nuclear naval base revealed

Tighter bonds - China strengthens ties with Iran

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, left, and Iranian First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, second right, in Beijing on 15 October 2009. They have been working to increase trade relations between the two countries. (PA)

After Iran revealed a covert nuclear facility, the threat of UN-imposed sanctions is looming. Christian Le Mière examines the impact on China and its hesitation to get tough on Iran

12 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Capital punishment - Japan's yakuza vie for control of Tokyo

Yemen's Houthi rebellion has a regional dimension

The Yemeni army has been embroiled in a five-year conflict with insurgents mainly in the Sadah province. (PA)

Speculation surrounds Iran's possible involvement in the Houthi rebellion in Yemen following the death of a Saudi Arabian border guard in the country.

10 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Collision course - Yemen's converging crises

Diplomacy rules – Turkey and Armenia sign historic protocols

Turkish President Abdullah G�l, left, welcomes Armenian President Serge Sarkisian before holding talks in Bursa, Turkey, on 14 October 2009. Sarkisian invited G�l to visit Yerevan for a football World Cup qualifying match between the two national teams in September 2008. (Press Association)

Thawing relations between Ankara and Yerevan have brought the prospect of the two countries establishing diplomatic relations for the first time. Emil Sanamyan looks at how this would establish an environment conducive to resolving the long-standing genocide dispute.

11 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Turkish military seeks Armenia detente

Arms ship capture increases fear of Hizbullah

Francop, a ship accused by Israeli security forces of carrying arms for militant group Hizbullah, anchors in the port of the Israeli city of Ashdod on 4 November. (Press Association)

Israeli special forces' seizure of the Francop vessel and its cargo of weapons on 4 November has confirmed the potential for a renewed outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hizbullah.

09 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Ploughshare politics - The future of Hizbullah's militia

Secret report details Hamas' election options

A Palestinian intelligence report seen exclusively by Jane's analyses Hamas' options after Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called presidential and legislative elections on 23 October for January 2010.

03 November 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Hamas at the crossroads

US brokers a compromise in Honduras crisis

An accord was announced on 29 October that may herald the end of Honduras' political crisis, with deposed President Manuel Zelaya to be reinstated before 29 November presidential elections.

30 October 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Honduras dismisses military chief amid political chaos

Route of the problem - Trafficking and addiction threaten Russia

The flow of drugs across Russia's borders is increasing dramatically, in part to feed a growing domestic habit but above all reflecting the country's growing role as a global narcotics trafficking hub.

28 October 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Security agencies fall out in Russia

US piles the pressure on La Familia business

On 21 October, US law enforcement agencies launched a major operation targeting US-based members of La Familia, one of Mexico's most violent drug cartels.

26 October 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Family business - La Familia: Mexico's most violent criminals

A case of dual use: Iran's free zones

The old order in Iran meant for the salient features of Iran's Free and Special Economic Zones to provide long-term hope for economic development. However, the new order want them to offer a quick fix to the country's economic woes. Jane's investigates

26 October 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Iran's nuclear stand-off reaches new heights

Outside intelligence - Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA

JJ Green talks to former director of the CIA, Michael Hayden, about his part in covert programmes to track and kill terrorrists, and his ongoing involvement in helping to assure US national security.

23 October 2009

RELATED ARTICLE: Family business - La Familia: Mexico's most violent criminals

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