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Leadership change in Iran's IRGC
18 October 2007
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his close advisers appear to be taking the US war rhetoric seriously. However, Khamenei is not preparing his nation to withstand the US militarily, but to simply groom the regime's security forces to cope with the post-attack phase. That is, to reduce the likelihood of internal revolt at the hands of the many indigenous anti-Islamist factions that will be emboldened following a potential US military attack.
Deliberations in Washington about listing the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation is perceived by Khamenei as another step to pave the way to attack IRGC assets without a need for US Congress' authorisation. This represents a fatal risk to Khamenei, as the IRGC remains the primary armed entity entrusted to guard the theocratic regime that Khamenei oversees from the Office of the Supreme Leader.
Khamenei's decision to replace Yahya Rahim-Safavi, the outgoing former head of the IRGC since 1997, complies with the general rule of authoritarian regimes to rotate senior military commanders in order to prevent the rise of powerful military rivals. But on this occasion, the timing suggests the appointment of Mohammad-Ali Aziz-Jafari, the new top IRGC commander and also the head of the Basij Islamist militia forces, was less about the aptitude of Safavi as a potent political contender and more about assigning the fate of the Islamic Republic to someone with a hands-on record in combating internal dissent.