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Silencing the rockets: can the truce hold?

01 July 2008

Few have held out hope that the latest Hamas-Israel truce in the Gaza Strip would endure and it is tempting to see the rockets fired on 24 June by Islamic Jihad, just five days in, and a subsequent closure of the border crossings by Israel as evidence that yet another ceasefire will crumble.

The truce was born out of the necessity of a practical solution to the intractable problem of violence and economic disruption in Gaza. It serves as a challenge for Hamas to legitimise its year-long control over the region amid steadily worsening living conditions. The truce also provides Israel with a method of avoiding the costly and unpopular option of full-scale military re-engagement in Gaza.

It is also an opportunity to test the mettle of Egypt as a mediator, given the failure of a succession of diplomatic envoys from Washington to Brussels.

Whether Hamas is able to control the militias - the Palestine Islamic Jihad and the Army of Islam being two among them - will dictate the success of the ceasefire and, by extension, confer a measure of legitimacy on the militia cum political party.

Mohammed Najib is a JDW Correspondent based in Ramallah

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© 2008 Jane's Information Group

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