Media Release
Contact: Mandy Castle
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IHS Jane’s Examines What the Failure of North Korea’s Satellite Launch Means
Jane’s Defence Weekly’s North Korean Analyst
Caption: Satellite image of the Unha 2 rocket in its ascent over North Korea's east coast on the morning of 5 April 2009 (DigitalGlobe / WorldView-1)
London (6th April 2009) – “North Korea's most recent failure to successfully launch and fly either a complete two or three-stage space launch vehicle or ballistic missile has denied it the opportunity to validate a number of technologies, including third stage guidance, satellite insertion and separation, as well as satellite positioning,” explained Jane’s Defence Weekly’s North Korean analyst, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
“But whilst the U’nha 2 launch was a failure it will have provided valuable data for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s ( DPRK) satellite launch and ballistic missile programs if the telemetry links from the rocket were functioning properly.”
“Based upon this third failure it is highly probable that National Defense Commission will order a bottom up review of the satellite launch and long-range ballistic missile programs," says Bermudez. "This will undoubtedly be very uncomfortable for a number of missile bureaucrats, scientists and organizations."
"The nature and scope of such a review are difficult to gauge," Bermudez concluded, "The net result of the launch failure is that North Korea has not yet demonstrated that it has mastered the requisite processes and technologies to produce either a reliable space launch vehicle or an intercontinental ballistic missile.”
Jane’s Defence Weekly: Background Information on North Korea’s Missile Program
Following the impact of the first stage of North Korea’s rocket into the Sea of Japan both United States and Japanese Self Defense Forces vessels raced to the impact site in an attempt to recover any debris for analysis. Additional aircraft and navy vessels were also deployed to the impact area in the Pacific with a similar mission.
These comprehensive collection activities, both before and during the launch, will undoubtedly provide a considerable body of new information concerning the state of the DPRK ballistic missile technology and capabilities.
The DPRK has attempted, and failed, on three occasions to launch a satellite into low Earth orbit. The first launch occurred in August 1998 using what was known as a Paektusan 1 SLV carrying the Kwangmyongsong 1 satellite. The first and second stages, as well as payload shroud, functioned nominally and impacted the Sea of Japan and Pacific Ocean as planned. The third stage, however, suffered a fatal complication resulting in it and satellite burning up in the atmosphere.
The second launch was during July 2006, using what was known as a Paektusan 2 SLV carrying a Kwangmyongsong 2 satellite. Forty-two seconds after a successful lift-off there was a catastrophic failure of the first stage that resulted in the destruction of the entire system.
When viewed in the context of the most recent launch it suggests that the DPRK has not yet overcome certain industrial processes such as quality control, systems integration, reliability analysis, systems redundancy, etc. It also strongly suggests that it has not mastered certain technologies such as staging, attitude control, structural design, etc.
IHS Jane’s is an IHS Inc (NYSE: IHS) company.
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To request an interview with an IHS Jane’s Analyst, please contact Mandy Castle, PR Manager IHS Jane’s, (contact details at top of page).
Further analysis of North Korean’s ballistic missile launch attempt can be found online at jdw.janes.com or found in the next issue of Jane’s Defence Weekly.
About IHS Jane’s (www.janes.com)
IHS Jane's is the leading open source information provider and conference organiser on defence, international risk and national security to governments, militaries, industries and academia around the globe. 2009 is the 100 th anniversary of Jane’s All The Worlds Aircraft. IHS Jane’s, an IHS (NYSE: IHS) company, is headquartered in London, and also has offices in Alexandria, Virginia; Singapore; Tokyo; Dubai; and Sydney, Australia.
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