Media Release
22 August 2008
Contact: Mandy Castle
Jane’s Information Group
Press & PR Officer
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amanda.castle@janes.com
Poland and the United States Reached a Provisional Agreement
Comment and Analysis from Carina O’Reilly, Jane’s Europe Editor
London (28 July, 2008)
EVENT
Poland and the United States reached a provisional agreement on 15 August on sitting a U.S. missile defence base on Polish soil. The agreement was formally signed on 20 August with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Warsaw.
BACKGROUND
Negotiations over the proposed missile base, which will see 10 interceptor missiles based in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic, had stalled for some months. Poland had demanded United States Patriot missiles to defend itself against short- and medium-range attacks in return for hosting the missile base, a demand to which the U.S. had initially been hostile. Russia has been infuriated by the plans, and has long expressed doubts that the proposed system is designed to protect against threats from Iran as the U.S. maintains.
The former government of Jaroslaw Kazcynski had been considerably warmer towards the project than the new government of Donald Tusk, which took office in October 2007. Although there remains no love lost between Warsaw and Moscow, Tusk's administration has gone out of its way to demonstrate a break with its predecessor's hostile attitude towards some of its neighbours, and is fully aware that hosting the base would lead to rapidly deteriorating relations with Russia. Indeed, Minister of Defence Radoslaw Sikorski indicated in January that the impetus behind the missile defence plan was entirely American, and that a decision whether to host the base would be postponed as far as possible until after the U.S. presidential elections in November.
ANALYSIS
Carina O’Reilly, Jane’s Europe Editor commented, “Recent Russian adventures in Georgia appear to have concentrated minds on both the U.S. and Polish sides. The final deal includes agreements that U.S. soldiers will staff the missile defence sites within Poland, with a U.S. Patriot missile battery moved from Germany to Poland and staffed by U.S. military personnel, and that the U.S. will be obliged to defend Poland in case of external attack faster than would be required under its NATO commitments.”
“Minister of Defence Radoslaw Sikorski noted recently that the British declared war in 1939, but didn’t go to war for the defence of Poland. "It is no good when assistance comes to dead people," said Prime Minister Tusk on Polish television. " Poland will no longer be in the sphere which is not directly defended."
Poland has long been less than sanguine about Russian plans for its near abroad, and the agreement reached with the US makes its fears very clear. Russian anger at the deal - it has several times threatened to react by targeting its own missiles at the Polish base - is clearly of less concern to Poland now than Russian capacities, while the U.S. administration will have its own urgency heightened not only by events in Georgia but by the approach of the November elections. Proponents of the project in the U.S. will be keen to see construction of the bases begin, lessening the chances that a new administration will be able to go back on the deal. Relations between Russia and the West are set to deteriorate considerably between now and those elections.
FORECAST
The deal initially looked to place considerable pressure on EU unity, already under serious strain over Russia, with many eastern European states now openly mistrustful of Russian ambitions in its near abroad. However, NATO has since issued a warning to Russia that no new Iron Curtain will be allowed to fall across Europe, and there are indications that Russian strategic objectives of driving a wedge between NATO members by blaming Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for the conflict in Georgia have backfired. Rather, there appears to be a growing acceptance that Russian military action would have been far less likely if Georgia had been a full NATO member and the ramifications for Russian adventurism had involved a U.S. and NATO response.
Russia in its current belligerent phase is likely to follow through on its threats to target its missiles at the planned missile base in Poland. However, with Poland a full NATO member, and with the promise of a permanent U.S. military presence, there are no indications that the presence of the base will lead to open conflict. Moscow knows where to pick its fights, and far more likely is that it will continue to attempt to demonstrate its strength in areas where it perceives some ambiguity in the delineation of spheres of influence. Therefore expect continued skirmishing over Georgia’s place in the world, and more open interference in Kosovo, particularly the northern, largely Serbian areas.
O’Reilly concluded, “The largely Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan could also see an increase in tensions. Moreover, should the leadership of any other countries in Russia’s near abroad make open bids for a NATO troop presence – Ukraine for example – Russia will not hesitate to use all the tools in its arsenal, from the withholding of gas and oil and other trade sanctions to ultimately military action, to impose its will on the area it regards as its own backyard.”
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Editor’s notes:
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