Media Release
22 July 2008
Contact: Mandy Castle
Jane’s Information Group
Press & PR Officer
+44 (0) 208 700 3745
amanda.castle@janes.com
Power To The People: An Examination Of The ‘Chinese Threat’
London, UK (July 22, 2008) -- Trefor Moss, Jane’s Defence Weekly’s Asia Pacific Editor, writes on the ‘China Threat Theory’ in this week’s Jane’s Defence Weekly and addresses the growing sense of unease as to how the world’s newest superpower will make its presence felt on the geopolitical stage.
“China’s economic miracle has certainly worked wonders for the Peoples Liberation Army,
delivering a windfall that has doubled the army’s budget from USD 20.78 billion to USD 46.21 billion in the five years up to 2007,” Moss comments. “Moreover, budgetary growth is set to accelerate, according to Jane’s Defence Forecasts, rising by 8.3 percent year-on-year in 2008, 9.6 percent in 2009 and 11.7 percent in 2010 when China’s military bankroll will reach USD 78.81 billion.”
Analysing the advanced military programmes on which this rapidly growing budget is being spent, Moss says, “ China’s sheer size is enough to make the West feel uneasy; ‘Made in China’ labels have become ubiquitous reminders that the sleeping dragon is not just awake but working overtime. After a decade of double-digit growth and high-profile technological achievements, a man blasted into space in 2003, a satellite shot out of orbit in 2007, it is increasingly common to hear talk of a gathering ‘Chinese threat,’ even if few of the worriers can say what kind of threat China might actually pose.”
Observing that China is already on course to become the world’s largest economy around 2025, ‘Power to the People’ assesses the likelihood of China achieving similar superpower status militarily and Moss considers how China might be planning to flex its newfound military muscle.
“Planning for an invasion of Taiwan has long been the Chinese Central Military Committee’s all-consuming project,” he comments. “But today, with the focus no longer exclusively on Taiwan and with advanced capabilities at its disposal, China is developing its options.”
“For the first time in the history of the People’s Liberation Army,” Moss explains, “these options include the projection of Chinese power far beyond China’s own shores.”
China has agreed to disclose details of its military activities to the United Nations and a U.N. spokesperson told Jane’s in mid-July that China has now submitted information for the U.N. register of conventional arms. The U.N. is expected to report on this in mid-September.
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Editor’s notes:
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