Jane's Intelligence Review
Formation of Romania's third Social Democrats-led cabinet reduces risk of early election, government efficiency likely to decrease
US president’s statement on Iran sanctions waivers increases risk of snapback, undermining JCPOA’s longevity
China’s growing importance as aid donor and development partner to enable Cambodia to pursue new authoritarian politics
Key Points China is growing its role as Cambodia’s development partner and foreign aid donor while Western donors are cutting aid and threatening sanctions in response to the country’s ongoing political crackdown. Increasing Chinese investment and support will diminish Western
Religious festival deaths increase likelihood of new violent protest wave, small-arms terrorism in Ethiopia’s Amhara region
Event At least seven participants in religious processions marking the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo festival of Timkat (Epiphany) and one security officer were killed on 20 January when security forces opened fire on and fought with youths in Weldiya, in Semien (North) Wollo zone, Amhara region.
Foiled attack by Ghanaian returnees from Libya indicative of growing militant network presence, low-sophistication attack likely
Event Ghanaian security forces announced on 15 January the arrest of three men in possession of seven hand grenades and other explosives and intending to carry out a terrorist-related attack. Media reported on the same day that all the three suspects were Ghanaian returnees from Libya, with one of
New leadership, training of Philippines’ Islamic State-linked militants unlikely to allow expansion beyond western Mindanao in coming months
Event On 16 and 18 January 2018, President Rodrigo Duterte issued two rare security warnings that terrorists were planning imminent attacks against (unspecified) airports, ports, and other public places in the Philippines. At a 17 January 2018 Supreme Court hearing of why martial law had been
Turkey-Greece-Cyprus dispute over Mediterranean hydrocarbons risks disruption to shipping routes and localised naval incidents in 2018
Key Points Stand-offs between the navies of the rival countries could well extend to warning shots being fired, particularly within Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), with hotspots likely to be Block 6 and subsequently Block 3. An escalation involving targeted fire, however, remains
Acts of terrorism, insurgency, and politically- or ideologically-motivated violence by non-state actors recorded worldwide from open sources by Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre in 2017
North Korea has made progress in late 2017 on its experimental light water reactor at Yongbyon. Allison Puccioni and Elliot Serbin demonstrate how multiple intelligence sources can produce a better understanding of the reactor’s operations.
Although an Israel-Hizbullah conflict triggered by developments in southern Lebanon remains probable in the longer term, a potential new front is also opening in southwestern Syria as Iran and its proxies move closer. Nicholas Blanford and Jonathan Spyer assess whether a wider regional conflict is in the making