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2005 Annual Defence Report: major events and future trends
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| 19 December 2005 |
For the world's armed forces and defence industries, 2005 was a year when many of the world's emerging military geopolitical and defence industrial trends were thrown into sharper relief.
The need to gear operational capabilities toward expeditionary warfare - whether to operate in areas previously unconsidered because of peacekeeping requirements or to respond to natural disasters - became obvious, while advances in technology combined with contracting defence budgets have pressed the need to 'fight smarter', achieving more while deploying and procuring less. Moving into 2006, many of the resolutions demanded by the challenges of the past few years could well start to become apparent - within the defence industry certainly, but also on the world stage as a whole.
US offshore operations
No other event has illustrated the power and limitation of the US military quite like Iraq. After crushing the forces of Saddam Hussein quickly, the US-led coalition has struggled with a deadly insurgency of home-grown opponents and foreign extremists.
To deal with the problem, Washington has focused on standing up, and making operationally effective, security forces of the new Iraqi government. US military officials have continually insisted this process is proceeding apace, while civilian views are less sanguine, noting that Iraqi forces have a long way to go.
Another option floated by Washington - that international partners would help address the problem - collapsed almost completely during the past year as the number of coalition countries providing troops steadily shrunk. Not only did no new major troop contributors step forward to help 'internationalise' the Iraq operations, but a steady stream of donors, including Italy, South Korea, Poland and Ukraine, said they would begin pulling out their forces.
Asian alliances
Moving to the Asia-Pacific region, several simmering trends are set to strengthen from 2006 onwards. These include geo-political changes under way in China and Japan, representing perhaps the most significant strategic shifts currently evident worldwide. At the same time, a number of Asian countries are easing away from their traditional reticence toward multilateral activities.
China's military modernisation is a development of global consequence. The People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) launch in 2006 of its 11th Five-Year Defence Plan covering 2006-10 represents the next phase. Details of this plan remain a closely guarded secret but emphasis is likely to continue in several broad areas. These include further troop reductions, particularly among ground forces, together with promotion of joint operations, building 'informationised' capabilities and construction of an effective civil-military defence mobilisation system. Further insights will emerge from January onward.
In Tokyo, the Japanese Defence Agency is due to launch a major restructuring in March 2006. This will involve the Joint Staff Council, traditionally an administrative organisation, being reshaped as a unified command. Less definitively, analysts say that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is determined to move forward with constitutional reform following his landslide election victory on 11 September 2005.
Africa at risk
For Africa, 2006 is unlikely to be a year of 'ex Africa semper aliquid novi'; instead, it will be 'more of the same'. Africa will suffer intra-state conflict; there is danger of inter-state conflict; banditry and piracy will escalate; and major economic crimes will remain a serious problem. There will also be increased competition from major powers for influence on the continent, and the trend to commercialise security will continue.
It is fair to remember, though, that Africa only began decolonising some 50 years ago and that conflicts are notoriously difficult to end peacefully. Not for nothing has the UN been in Cyprus since 1964.
The primary risk of an inter-state war is on the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea, where both countries have built up their forces. Ethiopia has not been inclined to accept the award of territory to Eritrea and has difficulty coming to terms with its loss of direct sea access. Eritrea, meanwhile, just seems bent on being difficult. Both also have internal political and security problems, making an external 'threat' a welcome distraction.
This does not hold the only danger of inter-state war; many of the intra-state conflicts in Africa have a strong cross-border element and some are so intertwined as to be impossible to disentangle.
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