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CIA warns of continuing trend towards global WMD
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| 22 August 2000 |
ANDREW KOCH JDW Staff Reporter
Washington DC
Would-be proliferators are continuing their efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and insulate those programmes from external interference, according to a new US intelligence report.
A biannual Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report on global WMD acquisition says one of the trends in the latter half of 1999 was the emergence of potential new suppliers such as Iran and Pakistan.
The report also noted that Russia "continued to supply various ballistic missile-related goods and technical know-how to countries such as Iran, India and Libya". Russian missile assistance to Iran was "substantial", despite "some positive steps to strengthen the legal basis for export controls". The problem, the report notes, is that "Russian export enforcement and prosecution still remains weak".
The document said: "Iran remains one of the most active countries seeking to acquire WMD," adding that Tehran is developing the production capabilities for nuclear, chemical and biological weapons as well as long-range ballistic missiles. According to the report, "Tehran expanded its efforts to seek considerable dual-use biotechnical materials, equipment and expertise from abroad - primarily from entities in Russia and Western Europe" for its biological warfare programme. Tehran also continued to seek technology for its chemical weapons (CW) efforts from China and Russia.
Chinese companies were said to have provided "increased assistance to Pakistan's ballistic missile programme", which also receives North Korean assistance. One knowledgeable US defence official, however, played down Beijing's role, noting that "Chinese assistance has been important to the Pakistani missile programme, but North Korean assistance has been much more important".
The report also said that Beijing provided missile assistance to Iran, North Korea and Libya. Despite these problems, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher explained that "China has made progress in the imposition and enforcement of controls on nuclear-related technologies, as well as some significant progress in the chemical area". For example, the CIA noted that China's pledge to proscribe its sales of nuclear technology to Iran "appears to be holding".
North Korea continued to acquire raw materials for its ballistic missile programmes from abroad, "especially through firms in China". Pyongyang was also an exporter of "significant ballistic missile-related equipment", making missiles "a major source of hard currency". Last week North Korean leader Kim Jong-II admitted his country was selling missile technology, telling a group from the South Korean media that Pyongyang had been providing missiles to Syria and Iran.
Although the report said that "it is difficult for the UN or US to accurately assess the current state of Iraq's WMD programs", it is known that Baghdad rebuilt key chemical weapons and ballistic missile production facilities. Iraq is said to be continuing work on converting Aero Vodochody L-29 jet trainer aircraft to unmanned air vehicles that are "believed to be intended for delivery of chemical or biological agents". As an alternative delivery method, Iraq continues to develop the Ababil and Al-Samoud short-range ballistic missiles.
The report noted that although "Libya's current capability remains limited to its ageing 'Scud'-B missiles ... suspension of UN sanctions last year will allow Libya to expand its procurement efforts". It adds that following the suspension of UN sanctions in April 1999, Tripoli "wasted no time in re-establishing contacts with sources of expertise, parts, and precursor chemicals abroad, primarily in Western Europe" for its CW programme.
Syria, the report said, continued its attempts to acquire chemical precursors for its CW, consisting of stockpiled sarin and development efforts into more lethal and persistent nerve agents. To deliver those agents, Syria continued its liquid-fuelled missile programme with North Korean and Russian help. Damascus also continued work on solid-fuelled rocket motor development with external assistance, previously identified as Iranian.