Non-Subscriber Extract
Tragedy may lead to purge, but no new funds
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| 18 August 2000 |
By Bryan Bender JDW Bureau Chief, Washington
The loss of the Oscar II-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Kursk in the Barents Sea is expected to rebound on the Russian Navy’s high command and could have long-term ramifications for the navy and the armed forces as a whole.
The Northern Fleet’s handling of the incident has come in for attack from the Russian media, who have criticised the speed of the rescue effort and the decision to decline foreign offers of assistance for several days. The navy has also come under fire for releasing misleading and often contradictory statements on the causes of the accident and the prospects for saving the Kursk’s crew.
Such criticisms have rubbed off on the government of President Vladimir Putin, who has appeared anxious to distance himself from the incident.
The result, experts and former government officials told Jane’s Defence Weekly, is likely to be a major shake-up in the navy. “There will be a pretty big political fallout,” said Nikolai Sokov, a Russian negotiator in the START I nuclear arms agreement with the USA and now a senior research associate at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California.
In particular, he believes the head of the Russian Navy Adm Vladimir Kuroyedov, rumoured to be the leading candidate to head the National Security Council, could be one of the first victims. “His appointment is now under question,” Sokov said. “It is no longer a foregone conclusion.”
As to how the Kursk incident will affect resources allocated to the navy, and the submarine fleet in particular, observers agree that the severely limited funds available to the Ministry of Defence make it highly unlikely there will be any significant infusion of new resources. Some predict further reductions.
“Something is going to happen,” Sokov said, citing recent Russian plans to increase military spending, but acknowledged that resources are so scarce and the public backlash expected to be so strong, that President Putin will have an extremely difficult time strengthening the force.
“They may throw a little money into search and rescue, but in reality there is no money in Russia,” said naval analyst Norman Polmar, particularly for any significant upswing in submarine operations. “They couldn’t scale them back any more than they already have.”
Retired US Navy Adm William Owens, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a career submariner, expects that the lessons learned will not be isolated to the submarine fleet. He can envision “a very broad look at what this means for the readiness of all of Russia’s complex weapon systems on surface ships and in ground and air forces.” Moreover, “there may be some impact on all those 100-plus nuclear submarine ticking time bombs sitting at the pier that we have forgotten about, providing more visibility of the problem as we go forward,” he added.