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North Korea's long reach in profile
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| 11 November 2003 |
North Korea's long reach in profile
By Joseph S Bermudez Jr
With tensions on the Korean Peninsula steadily increasing and the recent US decision to redeploy its troops within the Republic of Korea (ROK) south of Seoul, the subject of the vulnerability of Seoul and forward-deployed US troops to long-range artillery fire is frequently discussed as a key issue. Most of these discussions, however, are based upon faulty data or a poor understanding of the Korean People's Army's (KPA's) artillery capabilities and deployment.
The KPA fields over 13,000 artillery and multiple rocket launcher (MRL) systems. Of this total approximately 1,100 are long-range 170mm self-propelled guns (SPGs) and 240mm MRLs. A key requirement for these systems was the capability of reaching Seoul from specialized hardened artillery sites (HARTS) constructed within 5-20km of the demilitarized zone (DMZ).
HARTS are an integral component of the KPA's defensive system. Forward sites are located close enough to the DMZ to allow at least two-thirds of the artillery systems' range to fall within the ROK. Additional concentrations of HARTS, and other fortified fighting positions, are located throughout the KPA's first, second and third defensive lines as well as in vital rear areas. It has been estimated that there are over 500 HARTS within the II and IV Corps areas of responsibilities alone.
The challenge of quickly neutralizing KPA HARTS is an underlying factor in US development of specialized deep-penetration munitions during the past decade. The ROK Air Force (ROKAF) and US Air Force (USAF) have developed a comprehensive plan to methodically target known HARTS with specialized penetration munitions. These operations will seek to either destroy the HARTS or block entrances to inhibit their use by long-range artillery systems.
Of the KPA's approximately 1,100 long-range artillery systems, it is estimated that 710 are 170mm SPGs and 390 are 240mm MRLs. Of these, approximately 80% (876) are deployed south of a line running east-west through Pyongyang and Wonsan.
The use of chemical warfare (CW) rounds - which the KPA possesses for all artillery systems greater than 107mm in diameter - would present a significant increase in the threat posed by these systems - especially to civilians. A single 240mm MRL battalion firing CW rounds could quickly saturate a large area with lethal concentrations of CW agents and then maintain that level of concentration for a prolonged period of time. The panic that would likely ensue among the civilian population would undoubtedly be momentous. Based upon known KPA tactics, operations, procedures and defector interviews an estimated 5-20% of the rounds initially available to DMZ corps level and 620th Artillery Corps artillery units are likely to be CW projectiles.
As noted previously, the figures presented here represent the optimal KPA long-range artillery threat to Seoul alone. If all the KPA's artillery of 100mm or more, capable of firing across the entire DMZ, were calculated together they could achieve an initial rate of fire of approximately 300,000-500,000 rounds per hour.
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