- IHS Markit’s intelligence event database demonstrates a steep rise in jihadist terrorism from 2015 to 2017, with the overall number of attacks and fatalities in Sahel countries increasing by 80.2% and 62.5% respectively.
- The increase in attacks is accounted for by the merger of local jihadist groups, representing different ethnic groups, under the banner of Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), as well as the territorial demise of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq since mid-2017.
- JNIM is likely to increasingly shift its target set across the Sahel, focusing less on soft targets such as hotels and similar venues frequented by expatriates, and more on national and international government and security forces.
IHS Markit data analysis has identiﬁed key patterns in jihadist terrorism in the Sahel regional countries of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Nigeria since 2015.
IHS Markit data shows an overall rise in the rate of jihadist attacks across the six Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Nigeria since 2015. The number of attacks was 163 in January 2015, which rose to 781 in May 2018.
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