CBRN Assessment

Expanded sanctions against North Korea's exports unlikely to affect accelerated weapons programme, increasing risk of escalation

07 December 2016


On 30 November, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2321 (2016), strengthening sanctions against coal and other exports from North Korea.

Following North Korea's fourth nuclear test in January and launch of a Space-Launch Vehicle (SLV) or satellite in February, South Korea closed the jointly operated Kaesong Industrial Zone (KIZ), and North Korea cut two of the three hotlines available for inter-Korean communication. The KIZ remains closed, and there have been no indicators of improved relations between North Korea and China since then; this diplomatic isolation of the North Korean leadership increases the risks of escalation and miscalculation arising out of violent incidents on the Korean peninsula.

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