CBRN Assessment

Nuclear deal likely to temporarily increase Iranian political stability, cause escalation of Iraqi and Syrian proxy war

14 July 2015
Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrives for the final plenary meeting at the United Nations building in Vienna, Austria, on 14 July.

Iranian diplomats have told media that a draft nuclear agreement has been reached with the P5+1 countries in Vienna on 14 July.

The agreement will gradually allow investment in Iran's economy, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will likely attempt to maximise their gains in Iraq and Syria in the short term, and to increase their dependence on militant Sunni groups, while it will also increase Israel's fears over Hizbullah's developing capabilities.

Free from the constraints of sanctions, economic prosperity in Iran will boost stability in the two-year outlook; beyond that, unmet expectations of social and political reform may well become destabilising, especially if the cost of engagement in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria increases.

The agreement is likely to be implemented despite stumbling blocks and regional opposition; Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be increasingly dependent on militant Sunni groups, which will worsen their relations with the United States.

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