CONTENT PREVIEW
Terrorism & Insurgency

Coup following strike on Syria increasingly likely as US Congress vote approaches

04 September 2013

EVENT

If, as is very probable after the 9 September 2013 Congressional vote, the US initiates an air campaign against Syria, likely targets will include key government command and control sites, air defences, the air force, and the most capable 'heavy' ground forces.

In this event, the probability of a coup against President Bashar al-Assad will increase, but a coup will remain unlikely as long as Russia and Iran continue to back him.

IHS analysis of the drivers and consequences of a coup against Assad suggest an air campaign that degrades Assad's forces' offensive capability would make it clear to some of the Syrian army officer class that they have no hope of victory against their Sunni rivals, given the loss of their current unchallenged air superiority and the increased supply of advanced weapons systems to the insurgents.



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