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Freight expectations
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| 20 April 2005 |
Passenger-to-freight conversions have always been a part of the airline industry, with specialised lessors and some financiers taking a role in what has been perceived as a niche market. However, as demand for air cargo transport continues to soar, so do the numbers of jet aircraft, big and small, that are likely to become candidates for conversion. The key question is whether more finance will really be required to fund those conversions.
Market forecasts have predicted more than a doubling in the amount of cargo aircraft in the skies in the first two decades of this century. Among those forecasts, Rolls-Royce reported that in 2002 there were around 1,600 aircraft operational in the worldwide freighter fleet, but by 2022 there will be an estimated 3,500.
There will be conversions across the aircraft spectrum. However, Rolls-Royce predicts a shift from small and medium cargo aircraft to medium and large freight aircraft by 2022. For example, in 2002, large cargo aircraft accounted for 25 per cent of the market; in 20 years the aircraft group is forecast to account for around 34 per cent of the market.
Strong demand
GE Capital Aviation Services (Gecas) predicts that over the next 15 to 20 years there will be strong demand for freighter replacements and a general growth in demand. "You've got a replacement wave for narrow-body freighters from B-727s to B-737 Classics. For medium to large aircraft there is strong growth for new capacity," says Chris Damianos, senior vice-president and manager of cargo programmes at Gecas.
One aircraft that is likely to experience increased conversion is the B-747-400 passenger aircraft, which has recently sparked the interest of some investors and financiers who are keen to take advantage of the depressed market values and invest in their future as cargo aircraft.
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