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China’s Shen Zhou 4 module manoeuvres
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| 13 February 2003 |
By Phillip S Clark
When the descent module for China’s Shen Zhou 4 (SZ 4) spacecraft was recovered on 5 January 2003 the spacecraft’s orbital module, with a mass of around two tonnes, was left in orbit to continue operating as an independent satellite.
The Chinese have admitted that imaging systems are being carried on the orbital modules and, in the absence of any public description of these systems, one might wonder whether they are primarily military imaging systems. This would mean that they are supplementing the two existing Zi Yuan-2 reconnaissance satellites, which are returning their data via digital link rather than actual film being returned to Earth.
China’s first piloted launch?
The Chinese have planned the Shen Zhou programme with breaks of eight to nine months between launches, although it is known that there were delays in launching both SZ 2 and SZ 3, resulting in longer breaks. This suggested that China might be planning the SZ 5 mission with its first yuhang yuan (astronauts) around August-September 2003.
According to AFP on 17 January, a research official at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Group had indicated that the first piloted flight is currently targeted for October 2003, although it is not clear whether October is the planned month of launch or whether the launch can be expected around October.
A manned lunar mission?
On 21 January 2003 a story by K S Jayaraman was published by Space News Business Online that suggested China might be planning a manned flight around the Moon in the next few years. How credible is such a claim?
Although the Chinese have talked about manned lunar missions, it has always been as a long-term goal (2020 might be a reasonable target date). The current Shen Zhou programme, according to official Chinese announcements, is directed toward the establishment of a space station, initially using single-module stations but leading to something akin to Russia’s multi-module Mir Complex by around 2010. It would be too much to expect China to have an active manned lunar programme in the same time frame.
Flying a ‘loop around the Moon’ is not as complex a mission as a manned lunar landing, and this is something which in theory could be done by China by 2010, although this still seems highly unlikely.
On the other hand, we know that China is planning to start a programme of unmanned lunar missions in the next few years. Although no firm dates have been fixed, the Chinese have indicated that they can use the existing CZ-3, CZ-3A and CZ-3B launchers to fly lunar orbiter and lunar lander missions. Something akin to the Soviet sample-return missions is probably beyond the CZ-3B (the most capable of these three vehicles), but it could be flown using the CZ-5 with one of the upper stages described for the vehicle. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect a Chinese spacecraft presence on the Moon by 2010, but not a human presence near it in this time-frame.
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