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A380 faces tough challenges
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| 20 December 2000 |
A380 faces tough challenges
Airbus
has a tough series of technical and industrial hurdles to overcome before
ensuring the commercial success of the 555-seat Airbus A380, officially
launched on 19 December.
First, it must ensure that development costs do not rise too far above
the initial estimates of US$8 billion; some more recent forecasts have
suggested costs could grow to between US$10 billion and US$12 billion.
At an estimated US$200-218 million price tag for the new aircraft, the
European consortium will have to build far more than the 50 current firm
orders to make money on the programme. Keeping these costs down will be
a major engineering challenge. To meet the target of bettering Boeing
747 direct operating costs by 15-20 per cent, the A380 will have to include
some key new weight-saving technologies such as smart actuator systems,
laser welding, a high percentage of composite materials and a radical
new undercarriage design.
Second, it will have to keep up the momentum of orders over the next few
years at a time when, if trends over the last 30 years continue, aircraft
orders are predicted to fall. Beyond the 50 firm orders already secured,
Airbus has also received 42 options for the double-decker aircraft. The
50-order target required to make the project viable was reached on 15
December after Virgin Atlantic said it had ordered six A380s and taken
options on six others in a deal worth more than $3.8 billion. The biggest
order -- for 12 Airbus A380s -- came from Qantas. Singapore Airlines,
Air France, Emirates Airlines and the International Lease Finance Corporation
have also signed up for the jet, while Lufthansa and British Airways are
in talks. While the A380 is the prime contender for the Boeing 747 replacement
market, many airlines are opting for cheaper, smaller, twin-engined, replacements:
20 years ago the Boeing 747 was the dominant aircraft on Atlantic routes;
now 75% of aircraft in this market are twins. Will the Pacific market
go in the same direction?
Third, Boeing is likely to mount a fierce challenge to the A380. Boeing's
rival 747-X will seat 520 people and cost 'only' $4-6 billion to develop
-- and Boeing will be pressing the US government hard to ensure Airbus
sticks to the 1992 US-European agreement on government subsidies to new
large aircraft programmes.
However, the likelihood is that, over time, Airbus will succeed with the
project. Airbus is expected to allocate up to 40 per cent of development
costs to long-term strategic partners, who will, in effect, foot the bill
for some of the more innovative research and development work.
Until now Boeing has had a monopoly on the 400-plus seat market and the
747 has been a huge cash cow for the Seattle-based company, but the 747-X
has yet to score any major orders and the aircraft is based on a 1960s
design. Airbus has set itself tough technical challenges in the past -
such as developing the first wide-body twin and (Concorde apart) the first
fly-by-wire control system for an airliner - and always succeeded. With
the A380 programme now underway, Airbus has firmly seized the initiative.
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